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Old January 30th, 2011 #17
Ricardo Mendonça
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Join Date: Dec 2010
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Ainda quanto à questão da AIDS, HIV, SIDA ou lá o que quiserem chamar, é levada em conta nas projecções? Sim.

Volto a mostar o caso Brasileiro, para se ver que até no caso brasileiro isso foi tido em conta no modelo. Realçei a preto.

Brazil
Total population (2007): Estimated to be consistent with the 2000 census adjusted for underenumeration and with estimates of the subsequent trends in fertility, mortality and international migration. New official projections taken into consideration.
Total fertility: Based on: (a) births registered through 2001 classified by age of mother; (b) data on fertility from the 1992, 1993, 1995, 1996 and 2001-2006 Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilios (PNAD) and (c) census information by age of mother. New trends show a significant decline compared to previous estimates and projections.
Infant and child mortality: Based on data on children ever born and surviving classified by age of mother from the 2000 census. The demographic impact of AIDS has been factored into the mortality estimates.
Life expectancy at birth: Based on a life table for 1999-2001 derived from: (a) registered births and deaths by age and sex for 1999-2001 (adjusted for underregistration by using the growth-balance equation method) and the 2000 census population by age and sex, and (b) estimates of infant and child mortality. The demographic impact of AIDS has been factored into the mortality estimates.
International migration: Based on estimates of net international migration derived as the difference between overall population growth and natural increase during the 1980-2000 intercensal period and statistics on Brazilians living overseas.