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Old December 24th, 2007 #7
brutus
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Methodology

The methodology for determining America’s Safest and Most Dangerous City and Metro Area involves a multi-step process. First, 2005 city and metro area crime rates per 100,000 population (the most recent comparable final numbers available, released by the FBI in September 2006) for six basic crime categories — murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary and motor vehicle theft — were plugged into a formula that measured how a particular city or metro area compared to the national average for a given crime category. The outcome of this equation was then multiplied by a weight assigned to each of the six crime categories. Each of the six crimes was given equal weight. By weighting each crime equally, cities are compared based purely on their crime rates and how they stack up to the national average for a particular crime category. These weighted numbers then were added together for a city or metro area’s final score. Finally, these scores were ranked from lowest to highest to determine which cities and metropolitan areas were safest and most dangerous.

While this methodology appears rather complicated, it results in fairer treatment because a city or metro area’s crime record is measured against the national average. The farther below the national average, the higher (and better) a city or metro ranked in the final Safest Cities and Metros list; the farther above the national average, the lower (and worse) a city or metro ranked in the final list.

As in our last eight years' awards, all cities of 75,000 population or more that reported data for the six categories of crime measured for the survey were included in the competition. In previous years, the population cut-off for cities was 100,000+ population. There was no population minimum for metropolitan areas. In all, 371 cities and 344 metro areas were included in the survey.

A Word About Crime Rankings

Morgan Quitno’s annual rankings of crime in states, metro areas and cities are considered by some in the law enforcement community as controversial.

The FBI, police and many criminologists caution against rankings according to crime rates. They correctly point out that crime levels are affected by many different factors, such as population density, composition of the population (particularly the concentration of youth), climate, economic conditions, strength of local law enforcement agencies, citizen’s attitudes toward crime, cultural factors, education levels, crime reporting practices of citizens and family cohesiveness. Accordingly, crime rankings often are deemed “simplistic” or “incomplete.” However, this criticism is largely based on the fact that there are reasons for the differences in crime rates, not that the rates are incompatible. This would be somewhat akin to deciding not to compare athletes on their speed in the 100-yard dash because of physical or training differences. Such differences help explain the different speeds but do not invalidate the comparisons.

To be sure, crime-ranking information must be considered carefully. However the rankings tell not only an interesting, but also very important story regarding the incidence of crime in the United States. Furthermore, annual rankings not only allow for comparisons among different states and cities, but also enable leaders to track their communities’ crime trends from one year to the next.

We certainly do not want to be irresponsible in our presentation of state and city crime data. Our publications help concerned Americans learn how their communities fare in the fight against crime. The first step in making our cities and states safer is to understand the true magnitude of their crime problems. This will only be achieved through straightforward data that all of us can use and understand.

MISSING CITIES

This year, several cities of 75,000+ population did not report complete crime information and thus were not included in the Safest Cities rankings.

Chicago and Other Illinois Cities: For several years, rape numbers submitted by cities in the state of Illinois have not met the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) guidelines. This remains the case with 2005 crime data. According to state statisticians, the state of Illinois tracks "sexual assault," which includes not only female rapes, but also offenses such as male rape, sodomy, etc. For these reasons, Chicago and other Illinois cities once again are not found in this year's Safest City rankings. However, Chicago and other Illinois cities are included in our book City Crime Rankings for all of the other crimes.

In the past, our award has received criticism because it omits Chicago in its rankings. While we understand this concern, it is our view that it is more important that rape be considered an important crime and kept in our methodology. However, to see how Chicago might fare in our rankings, we calculated a separate, internal ranking that took rape out of the formula. Under this scenario, Chicago came in as the 52nd most dangerous city.

Brockton, Massachusetts and Warren, Michigan: These two cities are included in our City Crime Rankings book but are not part of the Safest City Award. This is because numbers were not available for certain crimes through the Uniform Crime Report. Brockton lacked numbers for aggravated assaults and Warren did not report motor vehicle thefts.

Clarkstown, NY: Due to a problem in New York state's reporting of crime figures for Clarkstown, it was not included in either our book City Crime Rankings or our annual Safest/Most Dangerous City award. At the request of Clarkstown, the state of New York provided Morgan Quitno Press with the figures that had also been reported to the FBI. Based on those provided crime figures and last year's population for Clarkstown, that city would have ranked as the fifth safest overall.

Other Cities: Crime data for a number of other cities with populations larger than 75,000 are not reported in this 13th annual Safest City Award. Crime statistics for these cities are not included for a number of reasons, ranging from general reporting difficulties and computer issues to changes in reporting systems. Below is a list of cities that the Census Bureau showed as having populations greater than 75,000 but for which no 2005 crime information was available through the F.B.I.’s Uniform Crime Report:

Augusta GA

Evanston IL

Bloomington MN

Fall River MA

Cicero IL

Longmont CO

Citrus Heights CA

New Haven CT

Decatur IL

New Orleans LA

Deltona FL

Vallego CA

Duluth MN

Waukegan IL

Elgin IL

West Jordan UT

Elk Grove CA

Wichita KS

http://moving.about.com/gi/dynamic/o.../cit00dang.htm

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