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Old August 31st, 2013 #181
Leonard Rouse
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nigel Thornberry View Post
It is inconceivable to believe that Alex would be arsed to make a few thousand profiles on his own forum. This has been done on others, such as Lindstedt's cesspool, but his kind of forum is microscopic compared to VNN.

It is much, much more improbable and beyond Alex's means than, say, a rapist with the exact same name, location and birth date being Fred O'Malley. I find it absolutely hilarious that Fred, Craig Cobb, and all of their allies were so sure of James Bowery's mathematical deduction that Donnie is some Mark Pitcavage character, while on the same token, these people refuse to believe Stanley Edward Diggs is in fact the Stanley Edward Diggs who brutally raped and battered a woman in Louisiana in 1986. It takes a cursory look and layman's understanding of mathematics to discover that Bowery's deduction is much more far-fetched than is the Diggs case, but they refuse to believe it is the same person.

Like Alex said earlier, it isn't about principle, it is about appearances. Well, it seems that Fred and co. have neither.
I lost a lot of respect for Bowery with that pseudo-scientific stunt. Talk about lying with statistics, and inserting himself into others' business to do it. Just a laughably ridiculous conclusion. I hope obtuseness partially explains the motivation.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #182
Jimmy Marr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonard Rouse View Post
I lost a lot of respect for Bowery with that pseudo-scientific stunt. Talk about lying with statistics, and inserting himself into others' business to do it. Just a laughably ridiculous conclusion. I hope obtuseness partially explains the motivation.
If anyone has or can easily get and post a copy of Bowery's analysis I'd like to read it.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #183
Leonard Rouse
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy Marr View Post
If anyone has or can easily get and post a copy of Bowery's analysis I'd like to read it.
http://vnnforum.com/showthread.php?p...50#post1496050

Quote:
Craig Cobb asked me to estimate the odds that an ADL/SPLC employee/agent would be in the same area as someone suspected of being an ADL/SPLC infiltrator at vnnforum.

To simplify things, let's say that:

We know which ADL/SPLC employee/agent is the infiltrator
There is only one vnnforum user suspected of being the ADL/SPLC employee/agent
Both are known to be in the Columbus, OH metro area -- population 800 thousand.


Since Columbus, OH has 1/375th of the US's population (800,000 divided by 300,000,000), the odds that any given US person lives in Columbus, OH is 1 in 375. Therefore the odds are about 374 out of 375 that the agent and the user are the same person: 99.7%

Caveat: This estimate is a very limited way to look at the evidence so it has to be taken in a broader context. There are a lot of other people who are ADL/SPLC employee/agents and there are a lot of other people who are vnnforum users who are highly active and somewhat suspicious, so you have to discount this calculation according to how much doubt you have about your initial guess as to the top suspects. On the other hand, there are other bits and pieces of information that should be taken into account -- hopefully avoiding
Confirmation_bias Confirmation_bias
.
Bowery only has 16 posts, so it's fairly easy to follow the discussion by cross-referencing his posts to that thread. Varg nailed him immediately. It's not so much a wrong conclusion as a set of braindead assumptions. He may have missed garbage-in/garbage-out day at jolly ol' school. He damned sure missed the 'keep your mouth shut until you know the shot' lesson.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #184
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His entire statistic was built on a false premise that:

Quote:
There is only one vnnforum user suspected of being the ADL/SPLC employee/agent
There wasn't only one. Everyone that the paranoids disagree with are accused of being ADL/SPLC agents or jews.

Why try to make a statistic based on trusting the word of insane people?
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #185
M.N. Dalvez
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Quote:
so you have to discount this calculation according to how much doubt you have about your initial guess as to the top suspects. On the other hand, there are other bits and pieces of information that should be taken into account -- hopefully avoiding confirmation bias.
Also, the part that Diggs the rapist and his coterie of retards and defectives have missed, is "you have to discount this calculation according to how much doubt you have", and "hopefully avoiding confirmation bias.".

That is, you can't start with an assumption that DiO IS Pitcabbage, and you can't assume that just because you WANT it to be true, it IS.

You have to start with some real data.

Which they don't have.

But they carry on with the assumption that DiO IS Pitcabbage, because it's useful in pursuing their vendetta against the management (and others) here.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #186
Leonard Rouse
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IMO, the thing with Donnie in Ohio seems in form to be bigger than some personal grudge held by a nut (Ferd).

It appears to have been latched-on as an avenue to sow dissent within this forum. It seems Ferd is still going on (and on) on that other forum about Donnie and how he's a jew or FBI agent or whatever. Someone apparently posted at the SPLC site, in the comments on the Ferd article, using the username 'Donnie in Ohio' to further the ruse. More 'proof' for Ferd's thesis, according to Ferd.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #187
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Quote:
It appears to have been latched-on as an avenue to sow dissent within this forum. It seems Ferd is still going on (and on) on that other forum about Donnie and how he's a jew or FBI agent or whatever. Someone apparently posted at the SPLC site, in the comments on the Ferd article, using the username 'Donnie in Ohio' to further the ruse. More 'proof' for Ferd's thesis, according to Ferd.
Yeah because an SPLC spy would post on their site congratulating them under their cover name. Also he would set his webpage as fbi.gov (which you can see if you hover over the name)

Sounds completely legit. I imagine Fred or one of his followers may have made that comment to try to implicate VNN and Donnie in the whole mess.

The person who originally didn't catch on to that and started spreading the rumor on there was McDonald's Bag Tony.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #188
M.N. Dalvez
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OK. OK.

Let me squash that one, once and for all.

I was the one who posted that comment on the SPLC blog, in order to see just how far they'd go on what isn't evidence of anything at all.

As it turns out, they'll grasp on anything at all, no matter how ridiculous it is on the face of it, in order to try to 'prove' their ridiculous, baseless, suspicions about people.

But it was a controlled experiment on my part, to confirm my suspicions about that crew.

About the fbi.gov part, it was intended as a further control element.

"Surely", I thought, "no-one could be so stupid as to actually believe that?" It turns out that yes, they are that stupid and that yes, they do believe DiO would honestly post that kind of thing.

Now you all know. I should have said so much earlier, but now seems to be a good time to do so.

Donnie: mea culpa. I should have used my own username. I didn't have the right to do that to you.

(Admins, if you think I need to be banned for so doing, it's your choice. I might even deserve it.)

Last edited by M.N. Dalvez; August 31st, 2013 at 03:11 PM.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #189
Jimmy Marr
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The fact that James Bowery even has an account at a place like that is a jaw dropper for me.

There's no way he could actually believe in the veracity of his premise.

Quote:
Craig Cobb asked me to estimate the odds that an ADL/SPLC employee/agent would be in the same area as someone suspected of being an ADL/SPLC infiltrator at vnnforum.

To simplify things, let's say that:

We know which ADL/SPLC employee/agent is the infiltrator
There is only one vnnforum user suspected of being the ADL/SPLC employee/agent
Both are known to be in the Columbus, OH metro area -- population 800 thousand
He must have found to opportunity to play the role of Mr. Science for the innumerate irresistible.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #190
varg
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.N. Dalvez View Post
OK. OK.

Let me squash that one, once and for all.

I was the one who posted that comment on the SPLC blog, in order to see just how far they'd go on what isn't evidence of anything at all.

As it turns out, they'll grasp on anything at all, no matter how ridiculous it is on the face of it, in order to try to 'prove' their ridiculous, baseless, suspicions about people.

But it was a controlled experiment on my part, to confirm my suspicions about that crew.

About the fbi.gov part, it was intended as a further control element.

"Surely", I thought, "no-one could be so stupid as to actually believe that?" It turns out that yes, they are that stupid and that yes, they do believe DiO would honestly post that kind of thing.

Now you all know. I should have said so much earlier, but now seems to be a good time to do so.

Donnie: mea culpa. I should have used my own username. I didn't have the right to do that to you.

(Admins, if you think I need to be banned for so doing, it's your choice. I might even deserve it.)

No that's not something to be banned over. I was just theorizing who might have posted something like that, not saying I knew for sure.

It's actually pretty funny that your experiment turned out exactly as you planned. Proving that they'll believe whatever they want to believe and they don't even think critically or ask themselves A> why would someone post under their supposed cover name to congratulate the splc B> why would they say their site is fbi.gov. Nope they just believe it because they want to, and spread the rumor as if it is damning evidence to back up their wacky conspiracy theory.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #191
Leonard Rouse
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy Marr View Post
The fact that James Bowery even has an account at a place like that is a jaw dropper for me.
He posted that here at VNN. It's in the link.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #192
Leonard Rouse
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Now that is interesting information. It tells what they do by what they didn't do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by M.N. Dalvez View Post
OK. OK.

Let me squash that one, once and for all.

I was the one who posted that comment on the SPLC blog, in order to see just how far they'd go on what isn't evidence of anything at all.

As it turns out, they'll grasp on anything at all, no matter how ridiculous it is on the face of it, in order to try to 'prove' their ridiculous, baseless, suspicions about people.

But it was a controlled experiment on my part, to confirm my suspicions about that crew.

About the fbi.gov part, it was intended as a further control element.

"Surely", I thought, "no-one could be so stupid as to actually believe that?" It turns out that yes, they are that stupid and that yes, they do believe DiO would honestly post that kind of thing.

Now you all know. I should have said so much earlier, but now seems to be a good time to do so.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #193
Vance Stubbs
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It's not inconceivable that Fred was framed for that particular crime but what else do we know?

He goes into utterly stupid things like the Pittclave incident and doesn't realize how little sense it makes. He has emotional outbursts where he threatens to call Mossad and, I fear, considers this a credible threat. According to the Andersons he tried to seduce(?) Angel on his forum. Apparently one of his customers thinks he's a scam artist. And finally, he's also a convicted burglar. Correct me if I'm wrong about any of these.

Stepping back, the sexual battery charge seems like much less of an outlier. The personality traits that would lead to such a thing have all been displayed in other circumstances.

I'm seeing little in defense of the guy at this point.
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Old August 31st, 2013 #194
Jimmy Marr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonard Rouse View Post
He posted that here at VNN. It's in the link.
Duh, thanks.

What a dope I am, working off a false premise to decry the use of false premises.

I think I'll go mow the lawn now.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #195
Karl Radl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vance Stubbs View Post
It's not inconceivable that Fred was framed for that particular crime but what else do we know?
And just who would frame Fred?
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Old August 31st, 2013 #196
Alex Linder
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonard Rouse View Post
I lost a lot of respect for Bowery with that pseudo-scientific stunt. Talk about lying with statistics, and inserting himself into others' business to do it. Just a laughably ridiculous conclusion. I hope obtuseness partially explains the motivation.
I had the impression -- and I told Craig this directly -- that Bowery was humoring him. I said, if the assumptions are wrong, the math doesn't matter. In the end, the entire basis of the claim was that Pitcavage and Donnie both live in Ohio. Or in/near some big town in Ohion. Um...ok. That's hardly proof.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #197
Soldatul Vostru
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Originally Posted by Jimmy Marr View Post

I think I'll go mow the lawn now.
I ought to do the same thing for giving Ferd 'Dodge the Weenie' O'Malley the benefit of the doubt and making some stupid posts last night.

Oh well, shit happens.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #198
varg
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Default Fred the Rapin' Ape: Cyberstalker

http://www.houmatoday.com/article/20...50320/0/search

No self control, online or offline. I see the illegal threats weren't only reserved for VNN members, but family too.

Quote:
Police report -- Nov. 5, 2004
Published: Friday, November 5, 2004 at 11:24 a.m.
Last Modified: Thursday, November 4, 2004 at 11:00 p.m.

E-mail threats result in arrest

HOUMA -- A man accused of sending repeated harassing, threatening e-mails to his brother and former business partner was jailed Thursday on charges of cyberstalking.

Houma Police Capt. Greg Hood identified the suspect as Stanley Edward Diggs, 56, 214 Denning Drive, Houma.

Richard Diggs, the suspect's brother, allegedly told police investigators that the harassment had been going on for some time, but that a recent message mentioned "popping a cap," suggesting a shooting.

At Richard Diggs' request, Hood said, officers went to Stanley Diggs' residence and advised him to stop e-mailing his brother.

When only 10 minutes after leaving Stanley Diggs' address, police learned that Richard Diggs had received another threatening message, they returned and arrested Stanley Diggs.

Diggs was released from jail after posting a $2,000 bond Thursday.
Funny how he made a thread on their support forum accusing Angel of cyberstalking him when he's actually been jailed for it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred O'Malley
It is important to note, that each instance of malicious communication is a seperate count, so a person can be habitualized under the laws for a single string of cyber crimes and sentenced to life in prison under the laws of most states.

Further, a subject may be prosecuted in either his location state or the state in which the victim lives.

I would strenuously caution you all against cyberstalking, it can ruin your life in short order.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred O'Malley
We had to ban a mod, who demonstrated a complete inability to control herself and that her psychosis was more important than WNism or this site. She has a following of equally psychotic cyber-cowboys who want to defend her from what they see as reprisals against her, not that she refused to comply with repeated requests then demands that she stand down. Only when it was obvious that she couldn't/wouldn't, was she put on ice for a few days. Then she caused as much trouble as she could for a week, working her friends into a frenzy.

Then she and one of her friends began making real-world threats. That's why I posted this thread, and also let them know that I know precisely where they live and who they are. That might have stopped it and if they came to their senses, good. If not they will have federal marshals and local sheriff's deputies at their doors.

Last edited by varg; August 31st, 2013 at 06:34 PM. Reason: ..
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #199
Soldatul Vostru
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Quote:
Originally Posted by varg View Post
http://www.houmatoday.com/article/20...50320/0/search

No self control, online or offline. I see the illegal threats weren't only reserved for VNN members, but family too.
Lol! He said 'popping a cap,' so he's a wigger to boot.

Um ugh pop a cap in yo ass, mudda fucka.
 
Old August 31st, 2013 #200
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Weird this guy has been in and out of jail and it didn't stop him from discussing explosives and other similar topics on VNN.
 
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