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Old May 23rd, 2015 #1
john-connor
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Question How Nazi secret police files could stop terror attacks The Nazi secret police were among the first to use geoprofiling to locate resistance fighters based on leaflets they distribu

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/scie...#disqus_thread
How Nazi secret police files could stop terror attacks
The Nazi secret police were among the first to use geoprofiling to locate resistance fighters based on leaflets they distributed. Now scientists believe similar methods could track terror cells.
An investigation into resistence fighters by Hiler's Gestapo is helping criminologists track down terrorists
An investigation into resistence fighters by Hiler's Gestapo is helping criminologists track down terrorists Photo: AP
Sarah Knapton

By Sarah Knapton, Science Editor

8:31PM BST 22 May 2015
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Nazi secret police files detailing the hunt for resistance fighters in Berlin during World War 2 could be used to locate terrorist cells today, scientists believe.

The Gestapo was one of the first organisations in the world to use the technique of geoprofiling in the search for husband and wife Otto and Elise Hampel.

After learning of the death of Elise’s brother in France, the couple began distributing postcards with anti-Nazi messages in apartment buildings around Berlin, hoping to encourage resistance.

But the investigators realised that there was a pattern to the distribution – within their neighbourhood but not too close to their home. The couple were discovered, tried and executed in 1943.

The Gestapo kept detailed records of the hunt, recording the locations of the postcards and detailing how they eventually found the Hampels.

The Hampels after their arrest

Now mathematical biologist Steven Le Comber from Queen Mary University and Texas State criminologist Kim Rossmo have used the information to help perfect a computer algorithm which could trace terrorists who disseminate leaflets and propaganda.

They believe that terror cells could be located based on the distribution sites of extreme literature. Their research is published in the journal Geospatial Intelligence Review, a classified journal which only intelligence organisations are allowed to read in case it tips off criminals to their methods.

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While it took the Gestapo two years and 214 postcards to use geoprofiling methods to trace the Hampels, the new algorithm could have found the couple in just a few months.

“In this case, of course, we are very much on the side of the ‘insurgents’,’ said Professor Rossmo.

“However, terrorists frequently engage in low-level activity such as leafleting and anti-government graffiti prior to major attacks, and this study shows how geographic profiling could help locate terrorist bases before more serious incidents occur.”

One of the postcards left by the Hampels

Geographic profiling is a statistical technique originally developed in by Rossmo to prioritise large lists of suspects in cases of serial crime such as murder, rape and arson.

The model uses the spatial locations of linked crime sites to identify areas associated with the criminals, such as their home or workplace.

It is now widely used by law enforcement agencies around the world, including the Metropolitan Police.

The new study shows that the distribution of leaflets can be used in the same way.

More recently Dr Le Comber has been using the algorithm to locate the origins of the outbreak of disease, such as malaria infested pools in Africa.

“The problem is essentially the same,’ said Dr Le Comber. ‘But instead of using the spatial locations of crimes to locate the offender’s home, you’re using the addresses of patients with – for example – malaria to locate the breeding sites of the mosquitoes that transmit the disease.

“In both instances, you typically have a large area to search, with lots of potential ‘suspects’ –people with criminal records, or water sources such as ponds, water tanks, or drainage ditches – and only limited resources. Anything that can effectively prioritise the search is potentially of huge importance.’

The team also used the programme to locate the probable address of Jack the Ripper based on the locations of his murder victims.
 
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