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Originally Posted by fdtwainth
Personally, I think we are heading toward stagflation: a period of high inflation (5-7% annually), low growth (1-2%) and high unemployment (12-15%).Note that the U. S. government is massaging the data, so one has to adjust them in order to arrive at real values.
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That would be fine for the mid 70's , but I think the game is entirely different now , with 9 trillion in direct debt and 50 trillion in total obligations . I think that real growth can go very negative , like -5% . IMHO , I think we will shoot right through stagflation and into some really nasty depression.
Historically , currencies collapse when a nations trade deficit reaches 6% of GDP. US trade deficit will reach 7% of GDP, next year .
Historical fact , every depression in America has been worse than the preceding one .