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Old March 13th, 2006 #1
lawrence dennis
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Default Sailer deconstructs NYT claim that massive Hispanic immigration reduced crime rates

Sampson's Silly Theory On Immigrants And Crime
By Steve Sailer
Quote:
March 12, 2006 -- Ill-informed and innumerate theorizing about crime trends is a popular pastime among America's ambitious academics and pundits. The latest example: Open Doors Don't Invite Criminals, a March 11th New York Times op-ed by Harvard sociologist Robert J. Sampson claiming that massive Hispanic immigration has reduced America's crime rate in recent years. It's easy to see why this silly theorizing happens. There are vast and highly un-PC differences in criminal tendencies among the different races—for example, African-Americans wind up in prison an incredible 33 times more often per capita than Asian-Americans. So the Mainstream Media almost never dole out enough information on crime trends to foster understanding.

My favorite example up to now: the popular theory put forward by celebrity economist Steven D. Levitt in his massive 2005 bestseller Freakonomics that the legalization of abortion from 1970-1973 caused the late-1990s crime drop by pre-natally culling future criminals.

Yet, as I pointed out to Levitt when we debated his theory in Slate.com in 1999, he forgot to look at crime rates by the proper age groups. In reality, the crime decline began among those born before the legalization of abortion. Those born in the years after Roe v. Wade went on the worst youth violence binge in recorded American history. Murder rates tripled compared to the cohort born just before legalization. The peak years for murder and other serious violent crimes committed by youths under 18 were 1993 and 1994—more than two decades after Roe.

Additionally, the Freakonomics Factor should have driven the murder rate down fastest among black youth, because according to Levitt and his co-author John J. Donohue in 2001:
"Fertility declines for black women [due to the legalization of abortion] are three times greater than for whites (12 percent compared to 4 percent). Given that homicide rates of black youths are roughly nine times higher than those of white youths, racial differences in the fertility effects of abortion are likely to translate into greater homicide reductions."
But instead, the black male age 14-17 homicide rate was more than 4 times higher among the first cohort born after Roe. Not surprisingly, last year, two economists at the Boston Fed, Christopher Foote and Christopher Goetz, redid Levitt's complex state-by-state statistical analysis and found that he had made two fatal errors. When corrected, his abortion effect vanished.
Another example of silly theorizing: In his bestseller The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell offered his theory of why New York City crime had declined in the 1990s, based on his insight into the marketing concept of tipping points.

You see, and follow me closely here, rising trends, such as crime rates or sneaker sales, tend to go up until they reach a "tipping point," and then they go down. Or vice-versa. Or sometimes they reach a tipping point and then they go up even faster. Or down even faster. It's hard to predict.
If that explanation of tipping points isn't totally clear, you can pay Gladwell $40,000 to come out and explain it at your annual sales conference. (Gladwell and Levitt's co-author Stephen J. Dubner are currently debating each other on their respective blogs. For once, the normally lucratively vague Gladwell may have more specifics on his side.)

Now, along comes Robert J. Sampson's theory in the NYT:
"[E]vidence points to increased immigration as a major factor associated with the lower crime rate of the 1990's (and its recent leveling off)."
This makes Levitt's abortion theory look like Einstein's General Theory of Relativity. I mean, Levitt's theory at least sounds semi-plausible, if you don't actually know the historical facts. But Sampson's is self-evident flapdoodle. It has to be one of the sillier theories ever seen in the New York Times—and that's saying a lot!

Even the headline is hilariously self-refuting: "Open Doors Don't Invite Criminals."

Yes, actually, they do.

The NYT and editors should try an experiment—leave the doors to their homes automobiles open and see what happens.

Why do we see such knuckleheaded arguments in favor of immigration in the prestige press? [Because it advances the jew agenda/war on White America. --L.D.] Because incisive thinking about the subject has been ruled off-limits. [And who 'ruled' it off limits, Steve? --L.D.] If you criticized this op-ed by pointing out that the Hispanic imprisonment rate is 2.9 times the white rate, as reported in The Color of Crime 2005, recently published by Jared Taylor's New Century Foundation, then you are an evil racist and nobody should listen to you. The Establishment's most effective ploy in eliminating debate over immigration has been to insinuate that only shallow (or sick) people think deeply about immigration....

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